Why 2023 presidential election is between Obidents and Emilokans

Ayo Adegboye: The February 25, 2023 presidential election is less than six months away with political permutation and counter-permutation as candidates try to woo the electorates. Prominent among them are Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).

From 1979 to 2019, most of the polls were two-party battles. The 1979 election was the only time there was a three-party race. Alhaji Shehu Shagari of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN), Chief Obafemi Awolowo of the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) and Dr Nnamdi Azikwe of the Nigerian People’s Party (NPP) held the country spellbound with robust manifestoes. Shagari won with 5,688,857 votes; Awolowo – 4,916,651 votes, and Azikwe – 2,822,523 votes.

In 1983, the contest was between Shagari and Awolowo. In 1993, the election was between Chief Moshood Abiola of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Alhaji Bashir Tofa of the National Republican Convention (NRC). Abiola won with a landslide victory. In 1999, 2003, 2015 and 2019, the elections were between two parties as well.

Ahead of the 2023 battle, followers of the major contenders are scrambling for support for flagbearers. One of the methods they have adopted in wooing the electorates is the massive sensitization for permanent voter’s card and collection of PVCs. The supporters of Obi have done a lot in this aspect. These youthful citizens, known as Obidients, are not stopping on the sensitization of the PVCs alone.

They have taken their creativity, zeal and courage to social media to canvass for support for the LP candidate. Indeed, it seems they are having an upper hand with the widespread support of the young demographic who are determined to take their destiny into their own hands by electing an individual they consider youthful, capable and energetic.

For Tinubu, his loyalists are not new to presidential elections, coupled with the antics and games that come with them, unlike the Obidients. These set of cirizens know the nation’s political terrain and are making nationwide consultations for endorsements. Tinubu, a strategist and fighter with tentacles and structures in Nigeria and abroad, remains a very formidable candidate, though the youthfulness and strength is no longer there.

Atiku is also a strong candidate with over four decades experience in active politics. He was the Vice President for eight years during the reign of PDP and is today regarded as one of the most respected juggernauts of politics, both in the North where he hails from and the entire country.

But Atiku and PDP stakeholders are enmeshed in a cold war due to his selection of Delta Governor Ifeanyi Okowa ahead of his Rivers counterpart, Nyesom Wike who came second in the presidential primary which was held in Abuja late May. This disagreement seemed to have slowed the preparation for the campaign of the PDP candidate. Atiku will have to do more to match the level of mobilization by the two other opponents.

In August, I travelled to Abuja from my temporary base in Ghana. At the Tinubu campaign office in Wuse 2, I witnessed a hive of political activities by different groups of people backing the APC candidate. The truth is that the former Lagos governor knows the game well and is well prepared for the 2023 race for Aso Villa.

However, the relatively close campaign office of Atiku, also in Wuse 2, looked moribund with not much visible activities apart from the security men attached to the location. The intrigue and threat by the Wike faction of the party cannot be handled with levity and as witnessed in recent times; the conflict has taken a toll on the PDP candidate with no end in sight.

I was also at the LP national secretariat, located at Okeagbe Street, off Ladoke Akintola Boulevard. This is where Obi uses as his Abuja campaign office. Worthy to mention is that he does not have a large campaign office but relies on the party secretariat with a personal correspondent who picks up letters addressed to him.

At the venue, the activities there look more of Labour meetings held in cluster groups. People were seen discussing the general election and ways to garner more support for Obi, a businessman who answered political calling nearly two decades ago. After my visits and from my observation of how things stand currently, the 2023 election is like to be between the ‘Obidients’ and the ‘Emilokans’

In conclusion, I am of a strong opinion that in politics, structures play a significant role. Dedicated loyalists are needed at the election ground to make sure results are transmitted to the situation room from units, wards, and local governments. So, a candidate who lacks structure may not be able to monitor all the polling units with their agents and supervisors, giving room for shortchanging of results.

Whoever says political structure does not matter only speaks out of ignorance. If the zeal of the youths who are craving for a total shift in power must be taken seriously, now is the time to form a solid assembly around the LP and Obi rather than banking on the less profitable venture of media elevation, attack on perceived opponents and denigration of other candidates.

No election has ever been conducted or won on social media. Nigeria cannot be compared to Kenya where William Ruto, Kenya’s deputy president defeated veteran opposition leader and former Prime Minister, Raila Odinga, who contested his fifth Kenyan election. Now is the time for youths to mobilize, form a physical structure around their preferred rubber if truly they crave a shift, otherwise the usual is inevitable.

Ayo Adegboye, a political analyst, wrote via adegboyayo12@gmail.com