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Who are the odds in Oyo North’s senatorial race?

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In this analysis, WALE AKINSELURE looks at the fierce battle ahead in the Oyo North Senatorial race.

IN 2019, Fatai Buhari became the first senator to win elections twice in Oyo North senatorial district. As announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Returning Officer for the district, All Progressives Congress (APC) Professor Jonathan Aileru, Buhari scored a total of 107,703 votes to defeat his nearest rival, Mulikat Akande-Adeola of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which received 89,365 votes.

When Buhari won for the first time in 2015, he said he was riding on the goodwill of his party, APC and his antecedent. He then obtained 100,456 votes to defeat the Labor candidate, the Honorable Tajudeen Were, who received 75,469 votes.

After initially serving as APC’s nominee governor for the 2023 election, Buhari, after being pleaded to gain senatorial form, is seeking a third term as senator. He had agreed with the idea sold to him by the APC that his third time in the senate was a chance for Oyo State to have a senior senator. This was aside from reaching an agreement with his fellow senator, Teslim Folarin, who was also bidding for APC’s governorship ticket. It was clear that Buhari had the support of the state’s party leadership given the drama unfolding regarding the Oyo North senatorial primary. The exercise was marked by allegations of manipulation, disturbance, arbitrary change of location, violence, threat of life. Shina Peller was the most vociferous of those who lost, claiming that the primary was rigged and that he later defected to the Accord Party, where he got his senatorial ticket. Today, Peller is up against Buhari of the APC in the search for the senate zeta from the district.

After losing the 2019 contest to Buhari, a former leader of the House of Representatives, dear Mulikat Akande, is now on the SDP’s platform again in the 2023 race. The other eight in the race are new entrants: dear Peller of the Accord Party; Hammed Solomon (ADC); Ms. Adesokan Taiwo (All Peoples Party); Salami Ganiyu (PvdA); Mr. Shuaib Ahmed (New Nigerian People’s Party); Mr. Babarinde Adeleke (National Salvation Movement); Mr. Akinwale Solomon (People’s Democratic Party) and Mr. Agbeje Taiwo of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

The Oyo North Senatorial District comprises 13 local government areas. They are Atisbo, Irepo, Iseyin, Itesiwaju, Iwajowa, Kajola, Ogbomoso North, Ogbomoso South, Olorunsogo, Orelope, Ori-ire, Saki East, and Saki West. Four federal constituencies are derived from the zone namely: Olorunsogo/Oorelope/Irepo; Ogbomoso North/South/Oriire; Atisbo/Saki East/Saki West; Iseyin/Kajola/Iwajowa/Itesiwaju. In terms of zoning, three of the local government areas fall in the Ogbomoso zone, while 10 local government areas are part of the Oke-Ogun zone. Since 1999, both the Ogbomoso and Oke-Ogun Zones have each produced 12-year senators for the district in terms of zoning. Oke-Ogun Zone of the Senatorial District produced Robert Koleoso, 2003-2007; Andrew Babalola, 2007-2011; Hosea Agboola, 2011-2015. Ogbomoso zone has produced Brimmo Yusuf, 1999-2003; Abdufatai Buhari, 2015-2019 and 2019-2023.

The top five local government areas of fierce struggle

The candidates for the Oyo South compete for a whopping 833,525 votes. According to INEC figures, the number of registered voters in Oke-Ogun is more than double that of the Ogbomoso zone. While the Oke-Ogun zone has 587,445 registered voters, the Ogbomoso zone has 246,080 voters. Across the senatorial district, candidates hope to get the majority of the vote in five local government areas with the highest number of voters. The top LGAs are Saki West (111,395 voters), Iseyin (100,560 voters), Ogbomoso North (91,619 voters), Ogbomoso South (88,288 voters), and Oriire (66,173 voters). Candidates will use all means to secure the majority of votes from the five local government areas alone that account for 55 percent of the vote in the senatorial district.

Oke-Ogun vs Ogbomoso votes

Political analysts limit the Oyo senatorial race to a battle between candidates from the APC, PDP, SDP and Accord. Interestingly, only the Accord chose its candidate from the Oke-Ogun zone, while those of APC, PDP and SDP come from Ogbomoso. While in the last elections Fatai Buhari and Mulikat Akande had most of their votes from their home base, Ogbomoso, the battle for the votes is getting even tighter with the entry of PDP’s candidate Akinwale, who is also an Ogbomoso man. While it’s clear that Ogbomoso will cast their own vote, Peller of Accord is also hoping to get some Ogbomoso votes to supplement that from the Oke-Ogun zone. It is clear that a good result in the 10 local government areas of Oke-Ogun will beat a bad result in the three local government areas of Ogbomoso. Therefore, whoever gets the largest share of Oke-Ogun votes, supplemented by Ogbomoso votes, will be the winner of the election. Supporters of the likes of Fatai Buhari, Mulikat Akande and Akinwale Solomon argue that Peller’s Oke-Ogunlokan story does not cut across the Oke-Ogun zone. They noted that other local governments vote based on their uniqueness and belief in candidates and may not be thrilled with the Oke-Ogun campaign. Supporters of MulikatAkande note that their director was a victim of saboteurs, internal crises in the PDP, her former party, but which are a thing of the past with her new party, the SDP. They claim that Mulikat Akande is strong in Ogbomoso and even stronger in Oke-Ogun, adding that she will use her experience in politics in the upcoming elections. Supporters of the PDP candidate, Akinwale, depended their candidate’s success in Oke-Ogun on what they described as the performance of Governor Seyi Makinde’s administration in the zone. According to them, the Makinde government may have quelled the Oke Ogun lokan agitations through various infrastructure projects placed in the zone. They note that Akinwale, popularly referred to as Wolekanle, is a politician of a new breed, bringing a breath of fresh air. There is also the enough is enough campaign with FataiBuhari who has held public office for over a decade and should therefore retire so that others can come on board. There are also those who argue that his immediate constituency, Ogbomoso, has not benefited enough compared to what voters in Oke-Ogun have received. However, supporters of Buhari argue that Oke-Ogun remains the fortress of the APC candidate, noting that his popularity is increased by his various empowerment programs in the zone.

In addition, Buhari has usually not had a good show in the Ogbomoso zone, while Mulikat Akande has had a good show in the zone most of the time than him. But despite everything, Buhari seems confident that his progress as a legislator is enough for the electorate to vote decisively for him for another term. On agitation for the federal institution, Fatai Buhari said that the bill to establish a higher institution in Oke-Ogun is finished and dusted and only awaits the approval of the president. Supporters of Buhari claim that the incumbent senator has surpassed the performance of every other senator who has represented the zone. They point to innumerable empowerment of its constituents, distribution of automobiles, motorcycles, sewing machines, grinders, freezers, power generators, transformers, distribution of grants and scholarships to higher institution students, widows, cooperation with the National Directorate of Employment (NDE) to entice voters in mechanized agriculture and the construction of information, communication and technology centers (ICT) in both Oke-Ogun and Ogbomoso.

The Oke Ogun lo kan story

In the 1990s, the call of the Oke-Ogun zone was to appoint the governor of the state. During the near electoral cycle, some of the zone’s indigenous residents are rekindling this zone’s desire. The question is usually around the call for governorship rotation between the zones of the state. But the rotational demand is mostly moderate as the zone is running mate for Ibadan candidates or as a result of assurances that they will be brought into the board. Usually the Oke-Ogun lo kan agitation quickly peters out, with the agitators lining up behind Ibadan candidates before the election. However, the Oke-Ogun lo kan argument is now being inserted in the rise of Senator representing Oyo North. Leading the push for Oke-Ogun to produce the next Senator is Dear Saheed Alaran, Dear Shina Peller, Dear Adeboyin Adeola and Dear Samson Ogunbode, under the platform of OkeOgun Indigenous Youth Solidarity Forum. Peller, who is a senate candidate from the Accord party, is especially at the forefront of the story among the people in his zone. If the majority of people in the Oke-Ogun zone, which holds the largest share of the senatorial district’s vote, accepts the story, it will surely guarantee victory for Peller. Peller said he was not seeking a second term in the House of Representatives, based on consideration of the two local government areas in his federal constituency. He said the local government areas of Kajola and Iwajowa had never produced a representative to the House of Representatives in nearly 16 years. According to Peller, Oke-Ogun has been serving Ogbomoso too long. Interestingly, candidates from some political parties are also embracing the Oke-Ogun Lo kan agenda with Salami Ganiyu of LP, Shuaib Ahmed of NNPP, during a recent debate, also claiming that Oke-Ogun has not been given any government presence as compared to Ogbomoso.

But while the natives of Iseyin, where Peller comes from, may join that initiative, one wonders if residents of other towns in the Oke-Ogun zone share Peller’s agenda. The battle for votes in the Oke-Ogun zone, which includes most of 10 local government areas, will be fierce. In addition, the incumbent Fatai Buhari has won his two elections with the majority of his votes coming from the Oke-Ogun zone, thus invalidating the votes from the Ogbomoso zone.

Other factors that may play a role in who wins the next Senate election in Oyo North are the candidates’ one-to-one relationship/affiliation with the electorate, the popularity of the House of Representatives candidates of parties to promote their Senate candidates and vice versa, the degree of internal crisis in parties and the degree to which they are resolved and the degree to which voters can be influenced and their votes bought. No doubt the upcoming senate election in Oyo North promises to be fierce given the pedigree of the contestants, the degree of horse-trading and other dynamics that have manifested themselves after the country’s last general election.

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