How Safe Is Nigeria For The 2023 Polls?

As Muhammadu Buhari’s presidency draws to a close, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is close to planning credible, fair and transparent elections for 2023. But with terrorists, armed bandits, kidnappers for ransom, ritualists, oil thieves and IPOB criminals still holding the country for ransom, thanks to their violent activities, patriotic and concerned Nigerians will be forced to ask: Is the country safe? for the general of 2023? elections? In recent years, Nigeria has faced unprecedented security challenges that continue to threaten the company’s survival. These security bottlenecks become an obstacle to the realization of the country’s development agenda. INEC recently raised the alarm by saying that the worrying insecurity could force their Commission to postpone or cancel upcoming polls if they are not properly addressed by the concerned authorities.

The election adjudicator noted that the development could hinder the announcement of election results and create a constitutional crisis, and called for concerted efforts to stem the tide of violence. As expected, the statement was accompanied by unrest and condemnation from citizens, civil society groups and socio-cultural organizations across the country. However, 30 days before the presidential and national assembly elections, the INEC mustered courage and vowed that the timetable will not be changed, saying that the issue of postponing or rescheduling the elections is not on the table. Speaking on January 26, 2023 in Abuja at the 20th Daily Trust Dialogue themed “Interrogation of the Presidential Agenda for 2023,” Information and Voter Education Commissioner Festus Okoye said that as an election adjudicator, it has the competence and courage to go proceed with this election, just as he promised the committee would proceed with the election.

Even with this certainty, one cannot be aware of the different kinds of security threats that each part of the six geopolitical zones faces. For example, in the Northwest, where banditry, kidnapping and industry flourish, several thousand people were killed and others driven from their ancestral communities and forced to settle in makeshift tents or displaced persons camps. Until now, these looters are still having their field days, especially in states like Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger and Katsina where the trend is more pronounced.

Ongoing clashes between farmers and herders have ruined several communities in north-central Nigeria, especially in the hardest hit states of Benue and Nasarawa. The confrontation between the two opposing factions is still ongoing as they continue to fight over land resources which they both consider very essential to their livelihood. Extending to the northeastern region where insurgency by Boko Haram and ISWAP terrorists has reared its ugly head over the past decade, especially in the BAY states of Borno, Adamawa and Yobe. One can recall how the former government of Goodluck Ebele Jonathan had to postpone the 2015 general election to free some communities from the control of the Boko Haram insurgents who enabled polls to be conducted in those areas. Although they are being decimated daily thanks to joint military operations around Lake Chad and various war zones, these terrorists are still very much alive and could use the opportunity to sink the electoral processes.

Moving towards the hottest zone, the activities of unknown gunmen, especially the militant wing of the terrorist organization IPOB, threatened elections across the region. The militants vowed that elections cannot be held in any state in the Igbo country.

To fulfill their threat, the militants committed devastation, setting fire to INEC offices and other facilities across the geographic location, while simultaneously killing staff.

The so-called unknown gunmen have recently become famous for kidnapping and then executing traditional rulers, top politicians, businessmen and other influential stakeholders in the region.

Not only that, to further compromise the security architectures, the members have been known to destroy police headquarters, divisions and other security equipment at the site.

Over the past four years, the Independent National Electoral Commission has so far recorded 50 attacks on its facilities in 15 states and most of them were carried out in the Southeast, with the Imo state alone recording 11 incidents.

Gunmen have killed at least 37 police officers in 52 attacks on towns and communities in Nigeria’s southeastern geopolitical zone, according to Leadership Newspaper checks. As above, surveys showed that the hardest hit state was still Imo, where there have been more than 30 attacks on police formations and personnel across the state.

It is clear that these unending problems, if left unchecked, may not allow INEC to have a playground to fully carry out its mandate to ensure no one is disenfranchised.

As we scour the south-south oil-rich region of the Niger Delta, militants’ activities have been limited to some degree to the lowest levels, not enough to halt elections given current trends in security issues.

This is not unrelated to the Presidential Amnesty Program (PAP), in which most of the miscreants who hit oil facilities to date have been involved in piracy, theft and kidnappings, are involved in skills acquisition programs or education through a scholarship program.

The southwestern region is also a quiet area with a certain amount of crime such as cybercrime, rituals, cult etc. becoming the order of the day.

Since the arrest and detention of the self-proclaimed freedom fighter of the Yoruba people, Chief Sunday Adeyemo, popularly known as ‘Sunday Igboho’, the separatists’ agenda in the region has weakened. This has clearly improved the security situation throughout the Yoruba nation.

On the other hand, the federal government has made the necessary arrangements and preparations to ensure that the appointed day for holding the elections remains sacred. This includes, but is not limited to, providing INEC with all necessary logistics and facilities to successfully carry out their mandates.

Not only that, the authorities have also strengthened security in every nook and cranny of the country using all the available security architectures at their disposal, including the military, police, intelligence, civil defense and a host of others. Currently, the army is conducting operations in no less than 35 states of Nigeria, including the FCT Abuja.

All of these efforts are aimed at improving the security of citizens’ lives and property and ensuring that they can exercise their constitutional mandate of voting in February and March 2023.

Recently, the military high command warned unknown gunmen and members of the Prohibited Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) against threats to sink the 2023 general election in the southeast. It also said no area was in the grip of terrorists, bandits and other criminals, although they may be present in some local governments.

The Director of Defense Media Operations, Maj.-Gen. Musa Danmadami issued the warning at Defense Headquarters in Abuja while answering questions at a press briefing about the activities of forces involved in various operations in six geopolitical zones in the country.

“The elections will be held as scheduled in the Southeast. No shooter or unknown shooter or whatever it’s called can stop the election. We have continued to perform various operations and we will continue to do it,” he said.

General Danmadami also added that “Police are the leading agency in electoral matters, they have the mandate, while other security services would support them in achieving this. I can tell you that any unwanted action during elections will be dealt with resolutely.”

For their part, the Nigerian Police Force, NPF, has also prepared for the general polls to provide maximum security. All officers recently recruited into the police force will be deployed to provide security during the 2023 elections.

The police chief, Inspector General Alkali Usman Baba made this known at the end of December 2022 during the fainting parade of the group of 2022 officers in Ilorin, the capital of Kwara.

For the Nigerian Security and Civil Defense Corps, NSCDC, preparations are also in high gear to provide security and ensure the election goes off without a hitch.

Ahead of the February general elections, the Nigerian Corps organized a two-day capacity building workshop between 25 and 26 January for all state commanders and the strategic managers of the Corps to ensure a smooth running of the 2023 general elections.

Dr. Ahmed Audi, commanding general of the NSCDC (CG), said the strategic management workshop aims to develop common policy guidelines that can be used in deepening the capacity of the workforce. He claimed the Corps will ensure proper coordination of voters, domestic observers, election-sensitive material, and the safety and security of election officials.

According to CG Audi, there are also plans to release a revised standard operating guideline on election duties and other salient election security rules for their staff to ensure a secure national election process.

Not only the above-mentioned security services, but intelligence services also work behind the scenes to neutralize any form of threat that could hinder the proper conduct of the elections. They include the Department of State Service, DSS, Defense Intelligence Agency, DIA, and National Intelligence Agency, NIA.

Looking at the appropriate measures taken by various security agencies, it can be concluded that Nigeria can proceed with the 2023 polls, but does not completely ignore the chance of some form of security issue that can be registered here and there, and that has been an integral part of the electoral process from the start.

Again, more attention should be paid to curbing the rampaging activities of IPOB militants in the Southeast, as well as outlaws, kidnappers and insurgents in the Northern Region, as they pose the biggest threat in the 2023 polls.

• Mukhtar is a staff writer at the Emergency Digest.