DEMOCRACY IN NIGERIA/AFRICA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, BY ABBATI BAKO

This writing is six years old and enjoy reading

DEMOCRACY IN NIGERIA/AFRICA AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, BY ABBATI BAKO

(FOR THE ATTENTION OF NIGERIAN PRESIDENT MUHAMMADU BUHARI)

BY

Abbati Bako

(A MUST READ RESEARCH FOR THE BENEFIT OF NIGERIANS)

Democracy is about economic benefit, prosperity, peace, unity and stability. Democracy creates competition among people as well as among nations.The world capital is amounting to around $90trillion or 60 Trillion Pound and about 90% of the amount has been accounted to by trade and services; that is commercial activities.

And oil is the wheel or prime mover of the world economy. But still, not only Nigeria even the whole African nations contributes less than 2% of the global economy (ADB, 2013). The simple question one may ask is why? But the answer is not simple to say. And again, why Africa is marginalized in International economic inter-play? What were the negative contributing factors? Are there solutions in sight? Could and should democracy be rooted without sound economic condition? We can see some of the negative factors in Nigeria (no synergy and cooperation among policy and law makers. The example of fracas at the Nigerian National Assembly last week.We shouldn’t forget that Nigeria is among;-

10- Most populous nations in the world

10- Most oil producing nations in the world

10- Most populous Muslims in the world

No1 black nation in the world and the giant of Africa

10- Most resourceful nations on earth.

Paul Collier says-: “In one sense this is hopeful: it tells us that economic development is the peace promotion”

Example, experts asserts that democracy never fights one another. e.g., EU (28 Democratic nations), G20, G7 and BRICS nations (why no Nigeria?

The political economy experts assert that there exists the imbalance of global economy. There are 7 billion human beings on the planet earth, but 80 to 90% do not have viable economy; whether as individuals or collectively as nations, especially the southern part of the globe. Are there any laws which insist that the world development and stronger economy has to come from the northern part of the world to southern part of the world? Or is there any gravitational pull that insist that development has to come from the northern (only) part to the southern part of the world?

For example, 80% of world economies belong to G20 nations with only 58% of the world population and 25% of the world economy belong to EU nations too. Then the rest of the 20% belong to about 200 nations. The estimated capital of $90 trillion or 60 trillion pounds; or $360 trillion “derivatives or repackage securities and other financial assets play an important role in international finance and they have contributed to the complexity and the instability of international finance. It is obvious that international finance has a profound impact on the global economy (R.Gilpin, 2001). It is estimated, for example, that Africa south of the Sahara accounted for only about 1 percent of total world trade in the early 1990s (R.Gilpin, 2001).

Second example is the Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) that has been in existence among nations of the world for hundreds of years; but in the early 1990s Singapore (with about 10m population) benefited more from FDI than the entire African continent. “it should be mention here that the share of FDI flowing into Africa has not been even in all countries. Egypt and Nigeria have received a lion’s share of FDI flowing into the region in term of absolute size. The share has however declined from more than 67% in 1983-87 to 54 percent in 1988-1992 and 38 percent in 1993-1997. Looking into figure for FDI inflow into Africa as a whole it is clear that its global share is by all standards very low. This share needs to be increased given the potential positive roles that FDI can play in the continent’s development” (Tatah Mentan, 2007).

The third example is the replica of total amount of daily trade’s world-over. It has been estimated that the sum of $1.08 trillion (Belis/Owen,2008) of shares has been traded every 24 hours globally. But one may ask; how much does the developing nations (especially nations of the southern part of the world) are contributing and benefiting? Professor Paul Collier observed (in his book titled ” The Bottom Billion, London, 2007) that 4 key issues restricted African societies to develop—-

1. Conflict

2. Trapped resources

3. Bad governance

4. Land lock

What can Nigeria do?

GLOBAL LEADERSHIP

World global leadership; Pre-1511 were Rome, Persia and Islam. It’s in the last 500 years boundaries were created by Britain.Then global leadership went into the hands of; Portugal, Spain, Holland, France and England; unless you have economic power by using democracy that you can lead the world (It is the USA that has been leading the world for the past 70 years after the SWW).

The economic power, military capability and political power are the yardstick of global leadership: rapid economic growth, industrial production, scientific and technological advancement: import and export of raw material/resources

e.g., the world measures of economy with gold: U.S with the lion share of 17%,or 24% of GDP. The China with 5.7% Japan with 4.3% and Saudi Arabia with 3.%.

e.g., in 2002 projections-: Prof. Daniel Drezner says; In capital market size in billions, U.S.A, E.U, China, India and Japan.

U.S.A= $54,488 billion

E.U= $51,546 billion

Japan=$ 21,628 billion

Russia= $800 billion

China= $5,000 billion

India= $5,000 billion

What of now (2015) in global productions, import and exports? What of Nigeria?

The world‘s total capital is around 60 Trillion Pounds. Experts’ says that China may not be the world’s economic power house because of many reasons. This may be due to geographical location, social problems, population density (crises) and so on.

DEMOCRACY IN AFRICAN NATIONS

Paul Collier of Oxford University London observed that in a viable democratic practice “The threshold is around $2,700 per capital per year, or around $7 person per day. The societies of the bottom billion are all below it”. Most democratic societies succeeded as a result of good, viable and vibrant economy. What of Nigeria and other African nations? What of other nations of southern parts of the globe?

The level of income at which has no net effect on violence, $2700.00 e.g., China has now passed the income threshold per-capita income has soared past $3,000.00 the freedom in the world’s 2007 survey contains reports on 193 countries and 15 related and disputed territories.

In human development index survey conducted by the United Nations in 2007/2008, Nigeria was rated as number 158 in terms of (but at 2012 index we have move to the level of 145)

Human Development Index value- 0.470

Life expectancy at birth- 46.5 years

Adult literacy rate- 69.1%

Combined gross enrollment ratio for primary, secondary and tertiary- 56.2%

GPD per capita- $1,128

Life expectancy- 0.359

Education- 0.648

GPD- 0.404

GPD per capita (PPD US$) rank minus HDI rank- $4

Comparison with other countries, e.g., Niger:

Human Development Index value- 0.374

Life expectancy- 55.8%

Adult literacy rate-28.7

Combined gross enrollment ratio for primary, secondary and tertiary- 22.7%

GPD per capita- $781

Life expectancy- 0.513

Education- 0.267

GPD- 0.343

GPD per capita (PPD US$) rank minus HDI rank- $1

In May 2005, NEPA was converted from NEPA to PHCN, to oversee the privatization of electrical power supply in the first quarter of 2005 less than 2000MW was generated, even though the government had spent N68 billion of capital in the sector (then).

In Kano State (for example) over 800 factories were closed down of which they can employ the services of about one million people.

The alternative only is generator plants. Nigeria has become the world’s leading nation for buying generators.This made it impossible for our companies to compete in the world market.

73% are not connected with national guide. They (PDP former ruling party) promised that by 2007, projected 10,000MW can be generated.

The argument /debate should be purely social services or profit making organization? Or has they (PDP party between 1999 to 2015 fulfilled their promises?

During the Obasanjo regime, the sums of $16billion were spent to normalize the functions of PHCN. Where do Nigeria stand now in term of electricity energy?

The example of some countries benefit from electricity energy (possible) as a social benefit or in a subsidize rate. Countries such as Brazil had about 114,000 mw; South Africa had more than 40,000 mw, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia they generate about 6,000 mw more (than what we generate in Nigeria). Also, Egypt generates about 60,000 mw; amazingly Ghana never had blackout in the last 1&1/2 decades. (although in recent time they are experiencing problems). What APC/PMB will do? What will be the solutions to these problems? How can Nigeria prosper within the next years?

To be continued, In Sha Allah

Abbati Bako,MA,psc,bsis,mti,Kent,UK (Political Strategist/Analyst/Consultant at IPRC, Nigeria)