According to the IMF, Nigeria’s economy will grow at 3.0 percent in 2022

According to the International Monetary Fund, Nigeria’s economy will grow from 3.0 percent in 2022 to 3.2 percent in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity in the oil sector.

This was announced by the IMF in its report World Economic Outlook Update (January 2023). It stated that growth in sub-Saharan Africa will moderate to 3.8 percent in 2023 amid the long-lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

South Africa’s economy will shrink from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.2 percent in 2023.

It said: “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is expected to remain subdued at 3.8 percent in 2023 amid the long-lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, albeit with a modest upward revision since October, before settling in will pick up again in 2024 to 4.1 percent.

“The small upward revision for 2023 (0.1 percentage point) reflects Nigeria’s rising growth in 2023 due to measures to address insecurity issues in the oil sector. In South Africa, on the other hand, following a COVID-19 reopening in 2022, projected growth will more than halve to 1.2 percent in 2023, due to weaker external demand, power shortages and structural constraints.”

The Washington-based lender explained that global economic growth will slow in 2023 and rebound in 2024. This is because the global fight against inflation and the Russian war in Ukraine weigh on activity.

Growth is expected to slow from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023 and then pick up again to 3.1 percent in 2024.

According to the lender, the forecast for January is a lot less gloomy than the forecast for October and could point to a turning point, with growth bottoming out and inflation declining.

It said: “Economic growth proved surprisingly resilient in the third quarter of last year, with strong labor markets, robust household consumption and business investment, and a better-than-expected adjustment to Europe’s energy crisis.

“Inflation also showed improvement, with blanket measures now easing in most countries – even though core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy and food prices, has yet to peak in many countries.

Elsewhere, China’s sudden reopening paves the way for a rapid recovery in activity. And global financial conditions have improved as inflationary pressures have begun to ease. This, and a weakening of the US dollar from its November highs, provided some relief in emerging and developing countries.”

Recently, the United Nations predicted that robust commodity trade and dynamic markets for consumer goods and services would drive Nigeria’s economic growth to three percent by 2023.

In its own forecast for 2023, the World Bank stated that the Nigerian economy would grow by 2.9 percent in 2023.

In 2022, crude oil production in Nigeria took a nosedive due to the activities of pipeline vandals and oil thieves. Production crashed to a low of 0.937 million barrels per day in September 2022, but recovered to 1.235 million barrels per day in December 2022.